Today / Shenzhen vs Chengdu

Shenzhen vs Chengdu Prediction

Saturday, June 27, 2026

Shenzhen
PPG 1.63 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Chengdu
PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-19.4%0-29.1%0-35.9%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.9%2-15.6%2-25.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.0%3-12.0%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV
Home win 29.7%
Draw 23.8%
Away win 46.5%
Over 2.5 61.3%
Over 3.5 37.3%
BTTS 55.8%
Home Over 1.5 35.5%
Away Over 1.5 49.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.8%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%
#2 1–2 9.9%
#3 0–2 9.1%
#4 0–1 9.4%
#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen1.1
Chengdu1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN · PPG 1.63

CHENGDU · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen (H) 29.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Chengdu (A) 46.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen face Chengdu on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Chengdu 47%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Shenzhen and 1.9 for Chengdu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.29 for Chengdu.

PredictVantage

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