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Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:00

Lexington W

PPG 1.73 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.1%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-18.7%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-16.6%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-15.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% 61.7% 1.62 +14.9%

Draw 18.4% 29.4% 3.40 -37.4%

Away win 10.7% 21.1% 4.75 -49.2%

Over 2.5 53.6% — — —

Over 3.5 31.3% — — —

BTTS 43.8% 54.1% 1.85 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.8%

H 71% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 3–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington W2.1

Tampa Bay Sun W0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON W · PPG 1.73

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Lexington W (H) 70.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +14.9%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -37.4%

Tampa Bay Sun W (A) 10.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington W face Tampa Bay Sun W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington W a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Tampa Bay Sun W 11%, so Lexington W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lexington W and 0.7 for Tampa Bay Sun W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington W are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.18 for Tampa Bay Sun W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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