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DC Power W vs Dallas T. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 23:00

DC Power W

PPG 0.92 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dallas T. W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.3%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.3%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.6%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 50.0% 2.00 -10.6%

Draw 29.6% 34.5% 2.90 -14.2%

Away win 25.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.2%

Over 2.5 47.5% — — —

Over 3.5 25.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 0–0 7.6%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC Power W1.5

Dallas T. W1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DC POWER W · PPG 0.92

DALLAS T. W · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.92) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

DC Power W (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.6%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.2%

Dallas T. W (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC Power W face Dallas T. W in USA - USL Super League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC Power W a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Dallas T. W 26%, so DC Power W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for DC Power W and 1.1 for Dallas T. W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC Power W are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.25 for Dallas T. W. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

DC Power W vs Dallas T. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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