Today / USA - USL Super League / Sporting JAX W vs Dallas Trinity W

Sporting JAX W vs Dallas Trinity W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX W

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dallas Trinity W

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.0%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 63.7% 1.57 -24.9%

Draw 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.9%

Away win 27.4% 21.1% 4.75 +18.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 36.4% 2.75 -13.4%

BTTS 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 60.6% 1.65 -19.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0✓ 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX W1.6

Dallas Trinity W1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 1.73

DALLAS TRINITY W · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX W (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -24.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.9%

Dallas Trinity W (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX W face Dallas Trinity W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX W a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Dallas Trinity W 27%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sporting JAX W and 1.2 for Dallas Trinity W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX W are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.35 for Dallas Trinity W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Sporting JAX W vs Dallas Trinity W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Super League Predictions