Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

USA - USL Super League Regular Season - 27 Hodges Stadium Saturday, April 25, 2026 18:00

Sporting JAX W PPG 1.58

1-2 MISS

Lexington W PPG 1.75

Home· -6.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX W face Lexington W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX W a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Lexington W 32%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting JAX W and 1.2 for Lexington W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX W are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.75 for Lexington W. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.6%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -6.4%

Draw 26.4%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -20.8%

Away 32.0%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -12.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.2% Odds: 1.70 -11.3%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sporting JAX W

1.39

Lexington W

1.19

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5/Under 65%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 53.6%

Bet Hit 80% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.58), Away GOOD (1.75)