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Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:00

Sporting JAX W

PPG 1.58 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lexington W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.0%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 44.4% 2.25 -6.4%

Draw 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -20.8%

Away win 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 25.9% — — —

BTTS 52.2% 58.8% 1.70 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.2%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX W1.4

Lexington W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 1.58

LEXINGTON W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.58), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX W (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -6.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.8%

Lexington W (A) 32.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX W face Lexington W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX W a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Lexington W 32%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting JAX W and 1.2 for Lexington W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX W are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.75 for Lexington W. This match finished 1-2.

Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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