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Dallas Trinity W vs Carolina Ascent W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:30

Dallas Trinity W

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Carolina Ascent W

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-113.8%0-28.6%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.6%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.0%2-16.3%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -4.8%

Draw 33.5% 33.3% 3.00 +0.5%

Away win 38.2% 48.8% 2.05 -21.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%

Over 3.5 20.6% 28.6% 3.50 -16.7%

BTTS 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.6%

D 34% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dallas Trinity W1.0

Carolina Ascent W1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DALLAS TRINITY W · PPG 1.42

CAROLINA ASCENT W · PPG 2.05

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.29, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dallas Trinity W (H) 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.8%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.5%

Carolina Ascent W (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dallas Trinity W face Carolina Ascent W in USA - USL Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dallas Trinity W a 28% chance, the draw 34% and Carolina Ascent W 38%, so Carolina Ascent W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dallas Trinity W and 1.2 for Carolina Ascent W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dallas Trinity W are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 2.05 for Carolina Ascent W. This match finished 1-3.

Dallas Trinity W vs Carolina Ascent W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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