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Carolina Ascent W vs Fort Lauderdale United W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Carolina Ascent W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Fort Lauderdale United W

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 71.4% 1.40 -35.2%

Draw 26.2% 24.4% 4.10 +4.5%

Away win 27.5% 16.0% 6.25 +43.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 59.9% 1.67 -15.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 66.7% 1.50 -40.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 23.1% 4.33 +40.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carolina Ascent W1.5

Fort Lauderdale United W1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAROLINA ASCENT W · PPG 1.25

FORT LAUDERDALE UNITED W · PPG 1.08

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carolina Ascent W (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -35.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.5%

Fort Lauderdale United W (A) 27.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carolina Ascent W face Fort Lauderdale United W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carolina Ascent W a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Fort Lauderdale United W 28%, so Carolina Ascent W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Carolina Ascent W and 1.1 for Fort Lauderdale United W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carolina Ascent W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.08 for Fort Lauderdale United W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +76.1%.

Carolina Ascent W vs Fort Lauderdale United W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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