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Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Carolina Ascent W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.5%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.8%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 65.4% 1.53 -27.2%

Draw 25.0% 27.0% 3.70 -4.5%

Away win 27.5% 19.0% 5.25 +26.6%

Over 2.5 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 62.5% 1.60 -24.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carolina Ascent W1.6

Tampa Bay Sun W1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CAROLINA ASCENT W · PPG 1.50

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 1.05

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carolina Ascent W (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -27.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.5%

Tampa Bay Sun W (A) 27.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carolina Ascent W face Tampa Bay Sun W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carolina Ascent W a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Tampa Bay Sun W 28%, so Carolina Ascent W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Carolina Ascent W and 1.1 for Tampa Bay Sun W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carolina Ascent W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.05 for Tampa Bay Sun W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +56.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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