Today / USA - USL Super League / Lexington W vs DC Power W

Lexington W vs DC Power W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Lexington W

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

DC Power W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.2%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.5%1-112.1%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 63.7% 1.57 -31.7%

Draw 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Away win 29.4% 21.1% 4.75 +23.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

BTTS 54.2% 54.6% 1.83 -0.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 59.9% 1.67 -33.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 27.3% 3.66 +34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.2%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington W1.5

DC Power W1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON W · PPG 2.09

DC POWER W · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lexington W (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -31.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

DC Power W (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington W face DC Power W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington W a 44% chance, the draw 27% and DC Power W 29%, so Lexington W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lexington W and 1.3 for DC Power W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington W are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.75 for DC Power W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Lexington W vs DC Power W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Super League Predictions