Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Leiknir R. vs IR Reykjavik

Leiknir R. vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:15

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.0%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.0%1-17.3%1-25.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.1%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-17.7%4+-25.6%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 2.40 +33.0%

Draw 21.4% 3.75 -11.8%

Away win 23.2% 2.40 -26.6%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.45 -3.9%

Over 3.5 44.9% 2.15 -3.5%

BTTS 63.5% 1.40 -11.1%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.83 +10.9%

Away Over 1.5 46.2% 1.83 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.2.4

IR Reykjavik1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.75

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=55.4%

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +33.0%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.8%

IR Reykjavik (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face IR Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 55% chance, the draw 21% and IR Reykjavik 23%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Leiknir R. and 1.5 for IR Reykjavik (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.60 for IR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Leiknir R. vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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