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Grindavik vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:15

Grindavik

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aeggir

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.2%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.3%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.2%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Draw 24.7% 4.00 -0.7%

Away win 26.5% 3.65 -2.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 1.42 -23.6%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.10 -31.5%

BTTS 55.8% 1.42 -20.8%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 1.50 -34.8%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.25 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.8%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0✓ 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.5

Aeggir1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.00

AEGGIR · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -15.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Aeggir (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face Aeggir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Aeggir 27%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Grindavik and 1.1 for Aeggir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Aeggir. This match finished 0-0.

Grindavik vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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