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Fylkir vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:15

Fylkir

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.4%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.2%1-16.5%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.3%3-17.9%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-110.1%4+-26.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 1.68 -0.7%

Draw 21.2% 3.95 -9.8%

Away win 19.7% 3.90 -13.9%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.42 -5.9%

Over 3.5 46.1% 2.10 -3.2%

BTTS 63.5% 1.42 -9.8%

Home Over 1.5 61.9% 1.48 -8.4%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.35 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir2.7

HK Kopavogur1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 2.40

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -0.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.8%

HK Kopavogur (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 59% chance, the draw 21% and HK Kopavogur 20%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Fylkir and 1.3 for HK Kopavogur (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.00 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Fylkir vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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