Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Afturelding vs Njardvik

Afturelding vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Njardvik

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.8%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.2%1-19.3%1-27.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 2.20 +1.4%

Draw 22.6% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 31.4% 2.75 -13.7%

Over 2.5 64.8% 1.53 -0.9%

Over 3.5 42.2% 2.35 -0.8%

BTTS 63.5% 1.44 -8.6%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.80 -2.1%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 2.05 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0✓ 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding1.9

Njardvik1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 1.75

NJARDVIK · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +1.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

Njardvik (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Njardvik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Njardvik 31%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Afturelding and 1.5 for Njardvik (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.80 for Njardvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Afturelding vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions