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Tigres vs D. Quindio Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:30

Tigres

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Quindio

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-113.9%0-26.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-16.6%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Draw 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

Away win 33.4% 37.7% 2.65 -11.5%

Over 2.5 30.2% 40.0% 2.50 -24.5%

Over 3.5 12.9% — — —

BTTS 38.1% 48.8% 2.05 -21.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob38.1%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–1✓ 13.9%

#4 1–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres1.0

D. Quindio0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES · PPG 1.57

D. QUINDIO · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Tigres (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.0%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -6.8%

D. Quindio (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres face D. Quindio in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres a 35% chance, the draw 32% and D. Quindio 33%, so Tigres are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tigres and 0.9 for D. Quindio (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.29 for D. Quindio. This match finished 0-1.

Tigres vs D. Quindio Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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