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Popayan vs Envigado Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:30

Popayan

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

UPCOMING

Envigado

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-113.8%0-29.7%0-34.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.2%2-15.8%2-24.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -6.4%

Draw 26.6% 36.4% 2.75 -16.1%

Away win 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.7% 4.40 +15.8%

BTTS 52.5% 52.4% 1.91 +0.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.5%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Popayan0.9

Envigado1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POPAYAN · PPG 0.89

ENVIGADO · PPG 1.73

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.48, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Popayan (H) 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -16.1%

Envigado (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Popayan face Envigado in Colombia - Primera B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Popayan a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Envigado 45%, so Envigado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Popayan and 1.4 for Envigado (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Popayan are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.73 for Envigado. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Popayan vs Envigado Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions