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Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 22:00

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

UPCOMING

Barranquilla

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.1%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-111.6%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 71.4% 1.40 -28.6%

Draw 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Away win 24.6% 14.7% 6.80 +40.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Home O1.5 48.1% 63.7% 1.57 -24.5%

Away O1.5 25.9% 21.1% 4.75 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Magdalena1.6

Barranquilla0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.69

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Magdalena (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -28.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Barranquilla (A) 24.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Magdalena face Barranquilla in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Magdalena a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Barranquilla 25%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Union Magdalena and 0.9 for Barranquilla (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Magdalena are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.92 for Barranquilla. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.8%.

Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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