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Internacional Palmira vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 23:00

Internacional Palmira

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

UPCOMING

Real Cundinamarca

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.0%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.3%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Draw 24.3% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Away win 22.8% 24.4% 4.10 -3.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

Away O1.5 18.8% 28.6% 3.50 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional Palmira1.6

Real Cundinamarca0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA · PPG 2.08

REAL CUNDINAMARCA · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Internacional Palmira (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Real Cundinamarca (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional Palmira face Real Cundinamarca in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional Palmira a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Real Cundinamarca 23%, so Internacional Palmira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Internacional Palmira and 0.7 for Real Cundinamarca (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional Palmira are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.55 for Real Cundinamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.0%.

Internacional Palmira vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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