Today / Colombia - Primera B / Barranquilla vs Popayan

Barranquilla vs Popayan Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 22:30

Barranquilla

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Popayan

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.7%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-112.0%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 45.5% 2.20 +18.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.8% 4.20 +32.7%

BTTS 54.1% 52.6% 1.90 +2.8%

Home O1.5 46.4% 43.5% 2.30 +6.7%

Away O1.5 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.1%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barranquilla1.6

Popayan1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 1.33

POPAYAN · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barranquilla (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Popayan (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barranquilla face Popayan in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barranquilla a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Popayan 27%, so Barranquilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Barranquilla and 1.0 for Popayan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barranquilla are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.90 for Popayan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Barranquilla vs Popayan Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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