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Depor FC vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:30

Depor FC

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Bogota FC

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-115.8%0-28.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.2%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.2%2-15.6%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.5%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 33.3% 3.00 -5.8%

Draw 29.8% 34.5% 2.90 -8.2%

Away win 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%

Over 2.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.6% 2.98 -7.9%

Away O1.5 32.9% 42.0% 2.38 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 0–1 15.8%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Depor FC0.8

Bogota FC1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPOR FC · PPG 0.50

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.24, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Depor FC (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.2%

Bogota FC (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Depor FC face Bogota FC in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Depor FC a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Bogota FC 39%, so Bogota FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Depor FC and 1.1 for Bogota FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Depor FC are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.38 for Bogota FC. This match finished 2-1.

Depor FC vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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