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Quindio vs Real Santander Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 22:00

Quindio

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

UPCOMING

Real Santander

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-15.1%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.4%1-19.2%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.8%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.1%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-13.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 69.4% 1.44 -17.1%

Draw 23.5% 26.0% 3.85 -5.7%

Away win 18.9% 14.7% 6.80 +17.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Home O1.5 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Away O1.5 14.0% 20.0% 5.00 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.0%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 2–0 15.8%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quindio1.8

Real Santander0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUINDIO · PPG 1.69

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quindio (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.7%

Real Santander (A) 18.9%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quindio face Real Santander in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quindio a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Real Santander 19%, so Quindio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Quindio and 0.5 for Real Santander (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quindio are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.22 for Real Santander.

Quindio vs Real Santander Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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