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Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:30

Orsomarso

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

UPCOMING

Real Cartagena

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-113.5%0-27.1%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-16.7%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 31.3% 3.20 +15.2%

Draw 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%

Away win 36.1% 46.5% 2.15 -22.4%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Over 3.5 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 43.5% 2.30 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 0–0 13.0%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orsomarso1.0

Real Cartagena1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.56

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 1.46

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orsomarso (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +15.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.9%

Real Cartagena (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orsomarso face Real Cartagena in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orsomarso a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Real Cartagena 36%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orsomarso and 1.0 for Real Cartagena (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orsomarso are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.46 for Real Cartagena.

Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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