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Union Magdalena vs Quindio Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 01:00

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Quindio

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-113.6%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.1%2-16.4%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 54.1% 1.85 -31.9%

Draw 33.1% 32.3% 3.10 +2.6%

Away win 30.1% 24.4% 4.10 +23.4%

Over 2.5 34.2% 42.6% 2.35 -19.6%

Over 3.5 18.0% 23.1% 4.33 -13.2%

BTTS 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 46.5% 2.15 -33.6%

Away O1.5 23.4% 25.3% 3.95 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–0 16.6%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 13.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Magdalena1.0

Quindio0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.83

QUINDIO · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union Magdalena (H) 36.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -31.9%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.6%

Quindio (A) 30.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Magdalena face Quindio in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Magdalena a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Quindio 30%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Union Magdalena and 0.8 for Quindio (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Magdalena are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 2.00 for Quindio. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Union Magdalena vs Quindio Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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