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Leones FC vs Depor FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:30

Leones FC

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

UPCOMING

Depor FC

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.8%0-27.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.6%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 55.6% 1.80 -37.2%

Draw 25.6% 30.3% 3.30 -9.3%

Away win 39.6% 23.8% 4.20 +66.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.4% 3.65 +15.3%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 51.3% 1.95 -35.6%

Away O1.5 38.2% 27.8% 3.60 +37.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.8%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones FC1.2

Depor FC1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES FC · PPG 0.70

DEPOR FC · PPG 0.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones FC (H) 34.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -37.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.3%

Depor FC (A) 39.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +66.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones FC face Depor FC in Colombia - Primera B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones FC a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Depor FC 40%, so Depor FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leones FC and 1.3 for Depor FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones FC are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.67 for Depor FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +52.7%.

Leones FC vs Depor FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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