Today / Kuwait - Premier League / Al Tadhamon vs Al Shabab

Al Tadhamon vs Al Shabab Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Relegation Play-Off - 3 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:45

Al Tadhamon

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Shabab

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-18.8%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.4%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.1%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 2.25 +15.9%

Draw 27.6% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 21.0% 2.94 -23.0%

Over 2.5 47.4% 1.95 -7.6%

Over 3.5 27.5% 3.35 -4.7%

BTTS 48.1% 1.70 -18.2%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 2.25 -2.1%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 2.65 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Tadhamon1.4

Al Shabab0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TADHAMON · PPG 1.10

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.10), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Tadhamon (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.9%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Al Shabab (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Tadhamon face Al Shabab in Kuwait - Premier League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Tadhamon a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Al Shabab 21%, so Al Tadhamon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Tadhamon and 0.8 for Al Shabab (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Tadhamon are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Shabab. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Tadhamon vs Al Shabab Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kuwait - Premier League Predictions