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Al Salmiyah vs Al Fahaheel Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Championship Playoffs - 3 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 16:05

Al Salmiyah

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Fahaheel

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.1%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.0%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-16.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 1.62 +1.3%

Draw 20.1% 3.70 -15.4%

Away win 17.5% 4.90 -8.6%

Over 2.5 61.1% 1.80 +10.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% 3.00 +11.0%

BTTS 52.6% 1.77 -6.9%

Win probability 1X2

Al Salmiyah (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +1.3%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.4%

Al Fahaheel (A) 17.5%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Salmiyah2.3

Al Fahaheel0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SALMIYAH · PPG 1.90

AL FAHAHEEL · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Salmiyah face Al Fahaheel in Kuwait - Premier League on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Salmiyah a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Al Fahaheel 18%, so Al Salmiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Salmiyah and 0.7 for Al Fahaheel (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Salmiyah are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.80 for Al Fahaheel. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.3%.

Al Salmiyah vs Al Fahaheel Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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