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Al Arabi SC vs Al Fahaheel Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Championship Playoffs - 5 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 19:15

Al Arabi SC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Fahaheel

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.4%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-17.8%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-16.8%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-16.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% 78.1% 1.28 -19.6%

Draw 20.5% 20.0% 5.00 +1.5%

Away win 16.7% 11.1% 9.00 +30.2%

Over 2.5 59.5% 61.7% 1.62 -3.6%

Over 3.5 36.1% 39.2% 2.55 -8.0%

BTTS 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Home O1.5 60.6% 72.5% 1.38 -16.4%

Away O1.5 19.9% 19.0% 5.25 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.1%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi SC2.3

Al Fahaheel0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI SC · PPG 1.90

AL FAHAHEEL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=62.8%

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi SC (H) 62.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -19.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +1.5%

Al Fahaheel (A) 16.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi SC face Al Fahaheel in Kuwait - Premier League on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi SC a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Al Fahaheel 17%, so Al Arabi SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Arabi SC and 0.6 for Al Fahaheel (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi SC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Fahaheel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.2%.

Al Arabi SC vs Al Fahaheel Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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