Today / Kuwait - Premier League / Al Nasar vs Al Jahra

Al Nasar vs Al Jahra Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Relegation Play-Off - 3 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:45

Al Nasar

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Jahra

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-17.3%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 1.38 -25.1%

Draw 25.6% 4.40 +7.6%

Away win 20.1% 7.25 +27.4%

Over 2.5 47.4% 1.62 -23.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% 2.55 -17.3%

BTTS 48.1% 1.80 -13.4%

Home Over 1.5 48.1% 1.45 -30.3%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 4.33 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1✓ 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nasar1.6

Al Jahra0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASAR · PPG 0.67

AL JAHRA · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Al Nasar (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -25.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +7.6%

Al Jahra (A) 20.1%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nasar face Al Jahra in Kuwait - Premier League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nasar a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Al Jahra 20%, so Al Nasar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Nasar and 0.7 for Al Jahra (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nasar are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.55 for Al Jahra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Nasar vs Al Jahra Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kuwait - Premier League Predictions