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Al Kuwait vs Al Arabi SC Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Championship Playoffs - 3 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 17:45

Al Kuwait

PPG 2.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Arabi SC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.1%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 1.95 +4.5%

Draw 24.5% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 21.9% 3.60 -12.7%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.91 -5.5%

Over 3.5 28.3% 3.30 -4.0%

BTTS 52.6% 1.70 -10.6%

Win probability 1X2

Al Kuwait (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Al Arabi SC (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kuwait1.5

Al Arabi SC0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KUWAIT · PPG 2.82

AL ARABI SC · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.82) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kuwait face Al Arabi SC in Kuwait - Premier League on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kuwait a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Al Arabi SC 22%, so Al Kuwait are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Kuwait and 0.8 for Al Arabi SC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kuwait are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 2.00 for Al Arabi SC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.5%.

Al Kuwait vs Al Arabi SC Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kuwait - Premier League Predictions