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Real Santander vs Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:30

Real Santander

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Bogota

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.5%0-120.5%0-29.8%0-33.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-112.0%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.6%2-13.5%2-21.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.6% 37.0% 2.70 -41.7%

Draw 35.2% 34.5% 2.90 +2.1%

Away win 43.1% 38.5% 2.60 +12.1%

Over 2.5 20.0% 45.5% 2.20 -56.0%

Over 3.5 7.0% 23.8% 4.20 -70.6%

BTTS 27.1% 54.6% 1.83 -50.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob27.1%

A 43% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.5%

#2 0–1 20.5%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 0–2 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Santander0.6

Bogota1.0

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.86

BOGOTA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Real Santander (H) 21.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -41.7%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +2.1%

Bogota (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Santander face Bogota in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Santander a 22% chance, the draw 35% and Bogota 43%, so Bogota are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Real Santander and 1.0 for Bogota (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Santander are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.67 for Bogota. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Real Santander vs Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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