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Real Cartagena vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:30

Real Cartagena

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Barranquilla

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.1%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-17.6%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.3%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-17.8%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 71.4% 1.40 +5.0%

Draw 15.9% 24.4% 4.10 -34.8%

Away win 9.1% 13.2% 7.60 -30.8%

Over 2.5 60.4% 54.6% 1.83 +10.5%

Over 3.5 38.1% 32.3% 3.10 +18.1%

BTTS 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.4%

H 75% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 3–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cartagena2.4

Barranquilla0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 2.29

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away AVERAGE (1.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Cartagena (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +5.0%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -34.8%

Barranquilla (A) 9.1%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cartagena face Barranquilla in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cartagena a 75% chance, the draw 16% and Barranquilla 9%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Real Cartagena and 0.7 for Barranquilla (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cartagena are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.17 for Barranquilla. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Real Cartagena vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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