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Orsomarso vs Leones Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:30

Orsomarso

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Leones

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-15.1%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.1%1-18.4%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-17.0%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.8%3-13.9%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-12.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 65.4% 1.53 +5.6%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -23.2%

Away win 8.4% 15.6% 6.40 -46.2%

Over 2.5 34.1% 45.5% 2.20 -25.0%

Over 3.5 15.5% 25.0% 4.00 -38.0%

BTTS 26.7% 46.5% 2.15 -42.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob26.7%

H 69% / xG 1.7-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 2–0 17.6%

#3 0–0✓ 12.7%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orsomarso1.7

Leones0.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.1% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.17

LEONES · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Orsomarso (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +5.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.2%

Leones (A) 8.4%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -46.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orsomarso face Leones in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orsomarso a 69% chance, the draw 23% and Leones 8%, so Orsomarso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Orsomarso and 0.4 for Leones (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orsomarso are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.57 for Leones. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Orsomarso vs Leones Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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