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Suwon FMC W vs Gyeongju W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 10:00

Suwon FMC W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gyeongju W

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.2%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.8%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.7%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 1.33 -16.7%

Draw 20.2% 4.80 -1.8%

Away win 17.1% 6.50 +6.7%

Over 2.5 64.2% 1.36 -12.7%

Over 3.5 41.8% 1.90 -20.6%

BTTS 55.8% 1.58 -11.8%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.32 -20.0%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.34 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.8%

H 63% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon FMC W2.4

Gyeongju W0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.25

GYEONGJU W · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Suwon FMC W (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -16.7%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.8%

Gyeongju W (A) 17.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon FMC W face Gyeongju W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon FMC W a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Gyeongju W 17%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Suwon FMC W and 0.9 for Gyeongju W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon FMC W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.86 for Gyeongju W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Suwon FMC W vs Gyeongju W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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