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Gyeongju W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:00

Gyeongju W

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changnyeong W

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.6%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.3%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 26.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongju W1.4

Changnyeong W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGJU W · PPG 0.62

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongju W (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changnyeong W (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongju W face Changnyeong W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongju W a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Changnyeong W 28%, so Gyeongju W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gyeongju W and 1.2 for Changnyeong W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongju W are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.11 for Changnyeong W.

Gyeongju W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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