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Incheon Red Angels W vs Hwacheon KSPO W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:00

Incheon Red Angels W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hwacheon KSPO W

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+30.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-119.6%0-215.7%0-38.3%0-4+4.8%1 1-06.1%1-19.8%1-27.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-01.5%2-12.4%2-22.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% 33.3% 3.00 -35.7%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 62.0% 47.6% 2.10 +30.2%

Over 2.5 45.7% 45.5% 2.20 +0.5%

Over 3.5 26.0% 30.5% 3.28 -8.8%

BTTS 45.4% 57.5% 1.74 -21.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 35.7% 2.80 -8.7%

Away O1.5 48.0% 46.1% 2.17 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob45.4%

A 62% / xG 0.5-1.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.6%

#2 0–2 15.7%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 0–3 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Red Angels W0.5

Hwacheon KSPO W1.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON RED ANGELS W · PPG 1.50

HWACHEON KSPO W · PPG 2.17

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.10 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Red Angels W (H) 13.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -35.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Hwacheon KSPO W (A) 62.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Red Angels W face Hwacheon KSPO W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Red Angels W a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Hwacheon KSPO W 62%, so Hwacheon KSPO W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Incheon Red Angels W and 1.6 for Hwacheon KSPO W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Red Angels W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.17 for Hwacheon KSPO W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Incheon Red Angels W vs Hwacheon KSPO W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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