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Seoul W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:00

Seoul W

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changnyeong W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.2%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.8%1-110.9%1-28.6%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 33.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul W1.5

Changnyeong W1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL W · PPG 1.12

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Seoul W (H) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changnyeong W (A) 33.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul W face Changnyeong W in South-Korea - WK-League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul W a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Changnyeong W 34%, so Seoul W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Seoul W and 1.6 for Changnyeong W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul W are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Changnyeong W.

Seoul W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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