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Suwon FMC W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:00

Suwon FMC W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changnyeong W

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.93 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-10.9%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.5%1-13.3%1-21.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.2%2-16.1%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-17.4%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-023.8%4+-117.6%4+-26.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 8.4% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 50.2% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 82%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 42.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 75% / xG 3.7-0.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.0%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon FMC W3.7

Changnyeong W0.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.00

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.93 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Suwon FMC W (H) 75.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changnyeong W (A) 8.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon FMC W face Changnyeong W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon FMC W a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Changnyeong W 8%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Suwon FMC W and 0.7 for Changnyeong W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon FMC W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.91 for Changnyeong W.

Suwon FMC W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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