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Hwacheon KSPO W vs Incheon Red Angels W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 10:00

Hwacheon KSPO W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Incheon Red Angels W

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.4%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-110.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.9%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 67.6% 1.48 -12.2%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Away win 16.4% 17.9% 5.60 -4.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.6% 2.66 -14.2%

BTTS 47.7% 57.1% 1.75 -16.5%

Home O1.5 48.3% 64.1% 1.56 -24.6%

Away O1.5 17.2% 26.7% 3.75 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 42.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwacheon KSPO W1.7

Incheon Red Angels W0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HWACHEON KSPO W · PPG 2.00

INCHEON RED ANGELS W · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hwacheon KSPO W (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -12.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Incheon Red Angels W (A) 16.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwacheon KSPO W face Incheon Red Angels W in South-Korea - WK-League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwacheon KSPO W a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Incheon Red Angels W 16%, so Hwacheon KSPO W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hwacheon KSPO W and 0.6 for Incheon Red Angels W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwacheon KSPO W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Incheon Red Angels W.

Hwacheon KSPO W vs Incheon Red Angels W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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