Today / Independiente Y vs R. Cundinamarca

Independiente Y vs R. Cundinamarca Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Independiente Y

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

R. Cundinamarca

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-19.5%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.3%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-16.6%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.0%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 31.3% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 24.4% — — —

Over 3.5 9.4% — — —

BTTS 28.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob28.2%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.5%

#2 0–0 18.2%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Y1.2

R. Cundinamarca0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.4% · O3.5 PROB 9.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE Y · PPG 1.43

R. CUNDINAMARCA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Y (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

R. Cundinamarca (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Y face R. Cundinamarca on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Y a 52% chance, the draw 31% and R. Cundinamarca 16%, so Independiente Y are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Independiente Y and 0.5 for R. Cundinamarca (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Y are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.57 for R. Cundinamarca. This match finished 3-1.

Independiente Y vs R. Cundinamarca Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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