Today / Envigado vs Patriotas

Envigado vs Patriotas Prediction

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:30

Envigado

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Patriotas

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-15.2%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.4%1-19.4%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.3%3-15.0%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-13.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 10.5% — — —

Over 2.5 41.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.8% — — —

BTTS 34.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob34.8%

H 68% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 2–0✓ 15.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Envigado1.8

Patriotas0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ENVIGADO · PPG 1.33

PATRIOTAS · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Envigado (H) 67.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Patriotas (A) 10.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Envigado face Patriotas on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Envigado a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Patriotas 11%, so Envigado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Envigado and 0.5 for Patriotas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Envigado are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.43 for Patriotas. This match finished 2-0.

Envigado vs Patriotas Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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