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Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 17:00

Mariehamn

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-114.1%0-213.3%0-38.3%0-4+6.0%1 1-05.3%1-110.0%1-29.4%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-01.9%2-13.6%2-23.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% 12.2% 8.20 +7.4%

Draw 22.9% 21.5% 4.65 +3.9%

Away win 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 66.7% 1.50 -19.1%

Over 3.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

BTTS 51.0% 58.8% 1.70 -13.3%

Home O1.5 32.5% 25.0% 4.00 +30.0%

Away O1.5 49.7% 73.5% 1.36 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.0%

A 64% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.3%

#2 0–1 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn0.7

HJK Helsinki1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.60

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 13.7%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +7.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +3.9%

HJK Helsinki (A) 63.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 14% chance, the draw 23% and HJK Helsinki 64%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Mariehamn and 1.9 for HJK Helsinki (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.33 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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