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Jaro vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 16:00

Jaro

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gnistan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.3%0-28.7%0-35.4%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.2%2-16.0%2-25.6%2-33.4%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.3%3-22.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 32.8% 3.05 -21.8%

Draw 22.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.9%

Away win 57.0% 46.7% 2.14 +22.0%

Over 2.5 62.8% 57.1% 1.75 +9.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% 34.7% 2.88 +14.6%

BTTS 56.6% 63.7% 1.57 -11.1%

Home O1.5 35.5% 40.0% 2.50 -11.3%

Away O1.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob56.6%

A 57% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro1.1

Gnistan1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO · PPG 1.00

GNISTAN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jaro (H) 20.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -21.8%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.9%

Gnistan (A) 57.0%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Gnistan 57%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jaro and 1.9 for Gnistan (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Gnistan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Jaro vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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