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VPS vs Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 15:00

VPS

PPG 1.80 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

Oulu

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-115.7%0-27.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.7%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.8%2-15.7%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.7%3-11.6%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 41.7% 2.40 -22.5%

Draw 31.7% 31.7% 3.15 -0.1%

Away win 36.0% 35.5% 2.82 +1.5%

Over 2.5 37.3% 52.4% 1.91 -28.8%

Over 3.5 18.6% 30.3% 3.30 -23.2%

BTTS 48.1% 59.9% 1.67 -19.7%

Home O1.5 32.5% 43.5% 2.30 -25.3%

Away O1.5 31.8% 39.2% 2.55 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–0 13.7%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS0.9

Oulu1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS · PPG 1.80

OULU · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

VPS (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -22.5%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -0.1%

Oulu (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS face Oulu in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Oulu 36%, so Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for VPS and 1.0 for Oulu (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.43 for Oulu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 5-1.

VPS vs Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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