Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / KuPS vs Ilves

KuPS vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 15:00

KuPS

PPG 2.14 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ilves

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.3%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-19.3%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 62.5% 1.60 -8.2%

Draw 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 20.1% 20.8% 4.80 -2.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 58.8% 1.70 +5.4%

Over 3.5 39.8% 36.4% 2.75 +9.4%

BTTS 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Home O1.5 60.6% 61.7% 1.62 -1.8%

Away O1.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.8%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS2.1

Ilves1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.14

ILVES · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=57.4%

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -8.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Ilves (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves 20%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for KuPS and 1.0 for Ilves (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.50 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 4-3.

KuPS vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions