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KuPS vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 15:00

KuPS

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilves

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.3%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-19.3%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 1.60 -8.2%

Draw 22.4% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 20.1% 4.80 -2.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 1.70 +5.4%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.75 +9.4%

BTTS 55.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -8.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Ilves (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 28%

BTTS 24%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.8%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS2.1

Ilves1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.14

ILVES · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=57.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves 20%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for KuPS and 1.0 for Ilves (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.50 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%.

KuPS vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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