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HK Kopavogur vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 19:15

HK Kopavogur

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grindavik

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.7%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.8%1-111.3%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.5%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 1.50 -21.1%

Draw 24.1% 4.40 +3.6%

Away win 23.3% 4.75 +6.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 1.33 -28.3%

Over 3.5 32.4% 1.85 -40.1%

BTTS 52.6% 1.40 -26.4%

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.6%

Grindavik (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur1.7

Grindavik0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 3.00

GRINDAVIK · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Grindavik 23%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for HK Kopavogur and 0.9 for Grindavik (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.4%.

HK Kopavogur vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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