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Grotta vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 19:15

Grotta

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fylkir

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.8%0-24.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.8%1-18.7%1-27.9%1-34.7%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.7%3-14.9%3-24.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 22.7% 4.40 +93.6%

Draw 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Away win 34.3% 63.7% 1.57 -46.2%

Over 2.5 65.9% 70.4% 1.42 -6.4%

Over 3.5 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

BTTS 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Home O1.5 54.1% 39.2% 2.55 +38.0%

Away O1.5 50.8% 70.4% 1.42 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta1.8

Fylkir1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.00

FYLKIR · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 44.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +93.6%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Fylkir (A) 34.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -46.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Fylkir 34%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Grotta and 1.8 for Fylkir (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +97.0%. This match finished 2-5.

Grotta vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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