Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Aeggir vs Throttur R.

Aeggir vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 19:15

Aeggir

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Throttur R.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.2%0-27.9%0-36.7%0-4+7.9%1 1-02.8%1-17.2%1-29.2%1-37.8%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.7%2-14.2%2-25.4%2-34.6%2-4+5.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.6%3-22.1%3-31.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 18.2% 5.50 -3.2%

Draw 20.0% 21.7% 4.60 -4.8%

Away win 62.7% 71.4% 1.40 -12.2%

Over 2.5 65.9% 73.5% 1.36 -10.4%

Over 3.5 42.7% 51.8% 1.93 -17.6%

BTTS 61.7% 67.6% 1.48 -8.7%

Home O1.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

Away O1.5 68.6% 76.9% 1.30 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob61.7%

A 63% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3✓ 7.8%

#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aeggir1.2

Throttur R.2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AEGGIR · PPG 0.75

THROTTUR R. · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Aeggir (H) 17.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -3.2%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.8%

Throttur R. (A) 62.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aeggir face Throttur R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aeggir a 17% chance, the draw 20% and Throttur R. 63%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aeggir and 2.5 for Throttur R. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aeggir are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Throttur R.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Aeggir vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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