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IR Reykjavik vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 16:00

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.75 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Volsungur

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.8%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.6%1-17.2%1-24.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.9%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-19.4%4+-25.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 78.1% 1.28 -25.3%

Draw 21.3% 19.0% 5.25 +7.1%

Away win 20.2% 12.9% 7.75 +33.9%

Over 2.5 65.9% 73.5% 1.36 -10.4%

Over 3.5 42.7% 51.8% 1.93 -17.6%

BTTS 61.7% 62.5% 1.60 -1.3%

Home O1.5 60.3% 80.0% 1.25 -24.6%

Away O1.5 34.4% 28.6% 3.50 +20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.7%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik2.6

Volsungur1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.75

VOLSUNGUR · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=58.4%

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -25.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.1%

Volsungur (A) 20.2%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Volsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Volsungur 20%, so IR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for IR Reykjavik and 1.1 for Volsungur (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Volsungur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 4-4.

IR Reykjavik vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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