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Assyriska vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 15:00

Assyriska

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Karlstad

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-110.5%0-212.0%0-39.1%0-4+9.0%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.5%1-37.3%1-4+7.1%2 2-01.4%2-13.3%2-23.8%2-32.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 23.8% 4.20 -28.0%

Draw 20.6% 27.0% 3.70 -14.3%

Away win 66.7% 59.5% 1.68 +12.1%

Over 2.5 61.1% 64.5% 1.55 -5.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 42.6% 2.35 -13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 37.7% 2.65 -14.1%

Away O1.5 68.6% 63.7% 1.57 +7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 67% / xG 0.8-2.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.0%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Assyriska0.8

Karlstad2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ASSYRISKA · PPG 0.80

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Assyriska (H) 12.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -28.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.3%

Karlstad (A) 66.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Assyriska face Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Assyriska a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Karlstad 67%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Assyriska and 2.3 for Karlstad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Assyriska are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.60 for Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Assyriska vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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