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Vestri vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Vestri

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Afturelding

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.8%0-22.6%0-32.5%0-4+3.5%1 1-01.4%1-14.1%1-25.8%1-35.4%1-4+7.7%2 2-01.6%2-14.5%2-26.3%2-36.0%2-4+8.4%3 3-01.2%3-13.3%3-24.7%3-34.4%3-4+6.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-13.0%4+-24.3%4+-34.0%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 31.3% 3.20 +9.1%

Draw 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

Away win 44.9% 54.1% 1.85 -16.9%

Over 2.5 77.7% 72.5% 1.38 +7.2%

Over 3.5 53.2% 51.3% 1.95 +3.7%

BTTS 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Home O1.5 60.3% 50.0% 2.00 +20.6%

Away O1.5 72.1% 65.4% 1.53 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob68.4%

A 45% / xG 2.2-2.8 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 2–3 6.0%

#3 1–2 5.8%

#4 1–3 5.4%

#5 1–1 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri2.2

Afturelding2.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 2.00

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 34.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.8%

Afturelding (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 34% chance, the draw 21% and Afturelding 45%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Vestri and 2.8 for Afturelding (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Vestri vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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