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Avai vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Avai

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.8%0-120.9%0-28.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-111.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.8%2-13.1%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.7%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 39.7% 2.52 -27.0%

Draw 34.4% 35.0% 2.86 -1.6%

Away win 43.7% 32.3% 3.10 +35.5%

Over 2.5 35.8% 38.5% 2.60 -6.9%

Over 3.5 18.4% 19.0% 5.25 -2.0%

BTTS 44.1% 48.8% 2.05 -9.6%

Home O1.5 32.4% 34.7% 2.88 -6.7%

Away O1.5 23.2% 29.4% 3.40 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.1%

A 44% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.8%

#2 0–1 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 1–0✓ 14.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai0.5

Cuiaba0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 0.86

CUIABA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 21.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -27.0%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -1.6%

Cuiaba (A) 43.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 22% chance, the draw 34% and Cuiaba 44%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Avai and 0.8 for Cuiaba (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Avai vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions