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Avai vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Avai

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cuiaba

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.8%0-120.9%0-28.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-111.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.8%2-13.1%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.7%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 2.52 -27.0%

Draw 34.4% 2.86 -1.6%

Away win 43.7% 3.10 +35.5%

Over 2.5 35.8% 2.60 -6.9%

Over 3.5 18.4% 5.25 -2.0%

BTTS 44.1% 2.05 -9.6%

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 21.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -27.0%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -1.6%

Cuiaba (A) 43.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 85.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.1%

A 44% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.8%

#2 0–1 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 1–0 14.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai0.5

Cuiaba0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 0.86

CUIABA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 22% chance, the draw 34% and Cuiaba 44%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Avai and 0.8 for Cuiaba (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.5%.

Avai vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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